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2014 Australian Open: Contributors' Picks

Jan 11th 2014

After the Australian Open draws appeared, Tennis View writers scanned the brackets to select key players to watch during the fortnight.  Each writer picks the men’s champion, the women’s champion, a men’s dark horse, and a women’s dark horse.  Some players appear more often than others….

Novak Djokovic

JOANIE AGLER

Men’s Champion: Novak Djokovic

Djokovic is arguably the best hard-court player in the game now.  He is located in the weaker half of the draw, and he has yet to lose a match since falling to Rafael Nadal in the US Open final.  Oh, and he has won this event the last three years, so whether or not he makes it four on the trot, it is still hard to name a heavier favorite. 

Women’s Champion: Serena Williams

Williams may have endured some hard times at her last few Australian Opens, but she is a five-time champion at this event.  She is also in a weaker section of the draw, and with the possible exception of Na Li, her potentially stiffest opposition resides in the opposite half of the draw.  Her B-game is better than most, and her A-game is second to none. 

Men’s Dark Horse: Lleyton Hewitt

This pick is driven primarily by sentimental reasons, but it is not inconceivable that the Australian could upset a seed or two and make Week 2.  He has a workable draw through the first few rounds, and as he proved at last year’s US Open and just this past week in Brisbane, he still has the goods to pull off some blockbuster wins.  Plus, that home crowd support could very well count for something.

Women’s Dark Horse: Ana Ivanovic

Ivanovic comes into this event having won Auckland just the week before.  She is a former Grand Slam champion, and she reached the final at this event in 2008.  Ivanovic has a big forehand and a manageable draw through the early rounds.  A trip to Week 2 and a potential fourth-round meeting with Serena Williams could definitely be in the cards.

VICTORIA CHIESA

Men’s Champion:  Novak Djokovic

Djokovic arrives in Melbourne as the three-time defending champion. He ended last season on a tear, winning four titles. Djokovic comes in fit and ready to make a charge at a fourth title, and anchors a much less dangerous bottom half. Although he lost to his main rival, Rafael Nadal, at the last hard-court major, he defeated him to cap his 2013 season at the ATP World Tour Finals.

Serena Williams

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

With exits in the fourth round and quarterfinals, Serena Williams' last two Australian Open campaigns have ended in disappointment. Each of these campaigns has also been marred by a pre-tournament (2012) or early tournament (2013) ankle injury. Currently riding a 22-match winning streak in which she has lost just three sets, both ankles seem to be functioning normally. If she invests in a little extra support tape this fortnight, it's hard to see her not coming away with her sixth title Down Under.

Men’s Dark Horse:  Jeremy Chardy

It's saying a lot when Jeremy Chardy is vying for the title of “most in-form player” anywhere, but in the third quarter of the draw, that's what he is. David Ferrer is the highest seed in this quarter, but even I'm not convinced by the uber-consistent Spaniard's form coming in. The rest of the seeds in this section are coming off injuries (Janowicz, Anderson, Youzhny) or had underwhelming tune-ups (Berdych, Haas). Chardy upset three seeds, including Juan Martin del Potro, to reach the quarterfinals last year, and he has an outside shot to replicate that feat in 2014.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Eugenie Bouchard

Now seeded, Bouchard hit the draw jackpot in the first round. She opens against Tang Hao Chen, the sub-400 ranked woman who won the Asian Australian Open Wildcard Playoff. With Williams anchoring the quarter at the top, the bottom half of the top quarter features a whole host of names who could meet her in the last eight. While Bouchard struggles against players who have the capability to hit her off the court, no such players can be found here. As a result, she has a great chance to reach the second week of a major for the first time.

YESHAYAHU GINSBURG

Men’s Champion:  Novak Djokovic

Picking against Nadal after last year seems foolish. But, with his not-overwhelming performance in Doha and his tough draw here in Melbourne, I have to tip Djokovic as the favorite. The only other player who might conquer him is Murray, who has lingering injury issues.

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

Until someone, anyone, shows a consistent ability to beat her, at Slams or otherwise, the only smart pick to win the women’s draw is Serena. She’s that far ahead of the field right now.

Grigor Dimitrov

Men’s Dark Horse:  Grigor Dimitrov

Looking at this draw, I really like Grigor Dimitrov’s chances to impress. He seems more serious with new coach Roger Rasheed, and this is his first tournament to prove it. Dimitrov’s first Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance is an attainable goal at this tournament.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Eugenie Bouchard

I’m tempted to pick Tsvetana Pironkova in this slot. She’s never looked competent before anywhere but grass, where she plays like a top-five player, but came out of nowhere to beat three top-10 players in Sydney. Still, until she can do that more than once, give me Eugenie Bouchard as a dark horse. She impressed me a lot last year and will only get better as time goes on. The Italian duo of Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci seem to be the only obstacles in her way en route to a first Grand Slam quarterfinal.

MIKE HOLDER

Men's Champion:  Novak Djokovic

Since falling to Rafael Nadal in the U. S. Open, the Australian Open defending champion has won all four tournaments that he has entered, including the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. As a No. 2 seed, he has a favorable draw to the semifinals, with the exception of a potential rematch of the epic 2013 battle with Stanislas Wawrinka. Top-seeded Nadal looks to have a tougher draw on paper and has recently pointed to the fact that he is still experiencing pain in his knee. 

Women's Champion: Serena Williams

With the competitive nature of the American, one would have to believe that Williams is salivating for a chance to place her 2013 difficulties in Melbourne far behind her. In what she labels her “favorite tournament,” her toughest test en route to the semifinals could be native Aussie Samantha Stosur. In the semifinals, she could see another fighter in Li Na. However, Williams, who is fresh off back-to-back victories against Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka in Brisbane, looks poised to win one of the two Grand Slams that eluded her in 2013.

Men's Dark Horse:  John Isner

Can an American make some noise early in 2014? Isner found success in Auckland despite an ankle injury and tends to save some of his best tennis for the Grand Slams. If he remains healthy, and the draw goes with chalk, he would face Andy Murray in the round of 16. With the jury still out on Murray's status after surgery, it could set up to be a compelling match and journey through the draw for Isner.

Simona Halep

Women's Dark Horse:  Simona Halep

Halep, who took a huge step forward in 2013, has a draw that appears to work in her favor. With success, she could face eighth seed Jelena Jankovic in the round of 16. Halep has won her last two meetings with Jankovic, albeit on clay. Should she advance, she could see Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals, a player who may be shaking off rust after missing significant time late in 2013.

DAVID KANE

Men’s Champion:  Novak Djokovic

It is hard to bet against the man who's won Down Under for the last three years. He ended last season in striking fashion, establishing himself as a much closer rival to Rafael Nadal than it had appeared for most of 2013. With a tough draw for the Spaniard, the Serb could well coast to a fourth consecutive crown in Australia.

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

Arguably, bizarre injuries and bad luck have kept the younger Williams off the winner’s stand in Australia two years running.  An ankle turn in 2012 and a back spasm in 2013, after another ankle turn and busted lip earlier in the tournament, ushered the American out of her favorite Slam earlier than she'd like. But a title run in Brisbane only served to widen the gap between Serena and Victoria Azarenka, the beneficiary of Williams' two-year Melbourne funk. Healthy and hungry for victory as ever, Williams had a largely business-like 2013, and she looks to continue the trend at the first major of the new season.

Juan Martin Del Potro

Men’s Dark Horse:  Juan Martin Del Potro

In a section replete with talented players, the tall Argentine might just sneak through to the later stages of this event. He proved he still has what it takes to play Grand Slam-winning tennis last year at Wimbledon, and is one who can play well on all surfaces. With a tendency to get into epic matches with the game's best, it is only a matter of time before one goes his way, and he breaks his major title drought dating back to 2009.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Camila Giorgi

Had she been in a different section, I’d have picked Sydney champion Tsvetana Pironkova, but Giorgi has been a consistent bracket breaker in the last few years at major tournaments. Upsetting Nadia Petrova at Wimbledon 2012 and Caroline Wozniacki under the lights at the US Open last year, the young Italian has a chance to make an even bigger name for herself in Melbourne. There, she could upset the vulnerable No. 3 seed Maria Sharapova, who is only playing her second tournament since July.

STEEN KIRBY

Men's Champion: Novak Djokovic

At the end of last year, Novak Djokovic seemed to find a form and approach that once again gave him the upper hand over Rafael Nadal and any other player in the game now. Although he hasn't played any official warm-up events besides the exhibition in Abu Dhabi, he is always incredibly fit and very prepared for every major. With a draw that looks like a gift on paper, Djokovic should be able to conserve his energy for later in the tournament

Women's Champion: Serena Williams

Serena is an absolute machine right now, and I don't see that ending in Melbourne. She just defeated world No. 2 Victoria Azarenka in the Brisbane final after defeating Maria Sharapova in the semifinals.  Those are two of her leading rivals for the Australian Open title, and Serena will be ready to avenge her disappointing loss in the quarterfinals last year. Others will certainly have a chance to win, but I don't see a way to pick against Serena in her current form. 

Men's Dark Horse: Mikhail Youzhny

Youzhny gets the tag more because he benefited from the draw than because of his current form. The Russian has a serious shot at the semifinals if he can simply play solid tennis and keep his mentality together. Youzhny dominates his hard-court matchup with third seed Ferrer, and Ferrer has played poorly in January by his standards with bad losses to Daniel Brands and Yen-Hsun Lu on his record. He also has always been competitive against possible quarterfinal opponent Tomas Berdych, so a semifinal against Djokovic is possible.

Tsvetana Pironkova

Women's Dark Horse: Tsvetana Pironkova

The Bulgarian usually only plays well at Wimbledon, where she once made the semifinals. But Pironkova just won her first title in Sydney with notable wins over Petra Kvitova and Angelique Kerber, Stosur or Klara Zakapalova will be a solid test in round 2, and then most likely another dark horse candidate in Ana Ivanovic in round 3. If she gets through those matches, the run probably ends against Serena in round 4, but not before a solid result.  

NICK NEMEROFF

Men’s Champion:  Novak Djokovic

Prior to the release of the draw, Novak Djokovic was the favorite to win his fourth straight Australian Open and fifth overall. His stock rose even higher when it was revealed that Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roger Federer are all on the opposite half of the draw. Nadal's half of the draw should be a war of attrition from start to finish, while Djokovic's half may be nothing short of a formality. Whoever comes through from the Nadal half will certainly be match tested but will have their work cut out from them trying to deal with the consistency and physicality of the Serb.

Women's Champion:  Serena Williams

While there are some arguments to be made for a few other women winning this tournament, especially Victoria Azarenka, I don't believe any of them are close to being good enough to warrant selecting anyone over Serena Williams. Williams is currently on a 22-match winning streak and has won 44 out of the last 47 sets she played. Until someone starts to chip into her run of dominance, it's hard to pick against her.

Tommy Haas

Men's Dark Horse:  Tommy Haas

Tommy Haas has a very favorable draw and, if he plays his cards right, could find himself battling in the semifinals. His likely obstacles would be Tomas Berdych in the fourth round and David Ferrer in the quarterfinals. Considering his two deep runs at majors last year were ended by Novak Djokovic, Haas will gladly accept not having to face Djokovic, or any member of the Big Four for that matter, to reach the semifinals. Despite coming in with inadequate match play and having lost to Jack Sock in the first round of Auckland, Haas is too talented a player not to be able to work his way into this tournament given his draw.

Women's Dark Horse:  Simona Halep

She was my dark horse for the US Open, and, on the back of a fantastic 2013, Simona Halep should make some noise down under. Her likely path to the quarterfinals looks like this: Qualifier, Lepchenko, Jovanovski/Cirstea, Jankovic. Jankovic is the true test in this, although Cirstea and Jovanovski could present danger if in form. But Halep has a mighty fine chance of reaching the quarterfinals and possibly going even further.

MATT TEWHATU

Men’s Champion:  Rafael Nadal

There are a number of reasons why Djokovic can win the Australian Open, such as being the defending champion and being granted a considerably easier quarter of the draw. But Nadal is looking as fit as he’s ever been and finished the clear No. 1 in 2013.  He will be unstoppable in Melbourne despite suffering a relatively tough draw.

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

Serena Williams is at unbackable odds to win the 2014 Australian Open and claim her 18th major title. After a stellar end to 2013, it’s incredibly hard to back anyone but the American because she has been so dominant in the past 18 months. Other than Azarenka, nobody will really come close to the 32-year-old.

Men’s Dark Horse:  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Although sitting at world No. 10 almost makes him too prominent for a dark horse, Tsonga looked in great touch in the exhibition match against Roger Federer and is looking extremely fit. Like Nadal, Tsonga has also suffered a tough draw, but a new coaching set-up coupled with an extended off-season should make him hard to beat.

Ana Ivanovic

Women’s Dark Horse:  Ana Ivanovic

Ranked at No. 14 and coming off a title in Auckland last week, Ivanovic will make inroads at the Australian Open and show that she can compete consistently with the elite. While a potential third-round clash with Aussie crowd favorite Samantha Stosur looms, Ivanovic has well and truly demonstrated her hunger for success in the early part of 2014. Her form and movement in practice has also been extremely impressive.