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Tale of Two No. 2s: Li Falls as Djokovic Survives

May 16th 2014
Sara Errani and Li Na

Earlier this week in Rome, Li Na had conquered a long-time nemesis in Samantha Stosur, who had won all six of their previous meetings. The tables would turn just a round later when Li faced home hope Sara Errani. In a striking mirror image of the Stosur matchup, the world No. 2 had won all six of her previous meetings against the Italian.

Playing on home soil can affect players in either of two dramatically different ways. Often, the pressure of expectations and the desire to prove oneself to one's compatriots can cripple a contender with nerves, resulting in performances below his or her usual standard. In other situations, the energy of a home crowd's enthusiasm can propel players to levels above their usual standards. The Italian women in Rome this week generally have fallen into the latter category, scoring some notable upsets and generally exceeding expectations.

For no woman was this more true than for Errani, who had not been a factor at marquee events this year. Suffering from burnout since the middle of 2013, this former top-10 singles player and former doubles No. 1 had lost in the first round of the Australian Open and in the third round of all three Premier Mandatory tournaments this spring. Errani had not defeated a top-10 opponent in 2014 entering this week, when she defended semifinal points two weeks ahead of defending another semifinal at Roland Garros.

But it was the small Italian who stood tall at the end of a three-set rollercoaster, dominating Li with a 6-2 third set after the pair had traded blows in the first two frames. Since winning the Australian Open, Li has experimented with her service motion under the guidance of coach Carlos Rodriguez. These tweaks have produced mixed results so far, and they may have contributed to the cascade of breaks in their quarterfinal. Among the most vulnerable top-20 women on serve, Errani needed to play exactly this type of match to score the upset.

The two women combined for 13 service breaks and 27 break points. But, whereas Li won an abysmal 42 percent of her first-serve points, Errani won more than half of the points on both her first and second serves. She protected her weak second delivery by maintaining a characteristically high first-serve percentage, although (equally characteristically) she did not strike a single ace throughout the three sets. Her reward consisted of her first victory over a top-two opponent and her second trip to a clay semifinal this spring. And it will be a winnable match against either Jelena Jankovic or Agnieszka Radwanska, who are both elite opponents but not the sort of explosive shot-makers who can blast Errani off the court.

Soon after the second-ranked woman fell in Rome, the second-ranked man tottered but ultimately survived. The first of two blockbuster men's quarterfinals at the Foro Italico pitted Novak Djokovic against world No. 5 David Ferrer. Rusty after a brief injury absence, Djokovic had needed to rally from a one-set deficit against Philipp Kohlschreiber on Thursday night. Still, he managed to slip through that three-setter in barely an hour and a half, conserving energy for a sterner test less than 24 hours later. Ferrer had reached the quarterfinal more routinely, so one of the most tenacious clay specialists of his generation was ready to dig into the trenches against the Serb.

This matchup, as one might expect, has been defined by the surfaces on which the two men have met. Djokovic has swept 10 of his 11 meetings with Ferrer on hard courts, while Ferrer had won three of four from the Serb on clay. Still, the last of those three victories came in 2009 before the Serb's 2010-11 transformation into a supremely fit competitor. During that breakthrough, Djokovic had conquered Ferrer on the red dirt of Europe for the first time. 

Their quarterfinal lived up to expectations, producing momentum shifts and tight competition from start to finish. Djokovic would slip away with the first set by breaking Ferrer in the 12th game as the two men hovered on the brink of a tiebreak. A routine victory seemed to hover within the Serb's grasp as he held break points in his opponent's first service game of the second set. But Ferrer would weather that threat and save all five break points that he faced in that set. The world No. 2 would face just one break point on his own serve throughout that set, but Ferrer seized his opportunity. That single wobble in an otherwise strong set proved the difference in allowing Ferrer to force a final set.

Soon, Djokovic would shift the advantage in his favor again by capitalizing on a poor service game by Ferrer to break for a 3-1 lead. He cruised to 30-0 in the next game, looking to grasp this quarterfinal in a stranglehold and put the Spaniard on life support. Refusing to yield, Ferrer swept the next four points and then held serve comfortably to even the set. This set the stage for the two-game stretch that would define their quarterfinal.

Perhaps still reeling from the disappointment of letting his lead slip away, Djokovic quickly fell behind 0-30 when serving at 3-3. Ferrer must have sensed his chance to pounce and ride his momentum to the finish line, but the Serb stopped him in his tracks. Reeling off four straight points to hold, Djokovic could breathe more freely. He broke a disillusioned Ferrer in the eighth game, setting himself up to serve for the match. Fighting with characteristic grit to the very end, the Spaniard did not make that task easy. Nor did Djokovic make it easy for himself, double-faulting on his first match point. But he would close out his determined opponent after two hours and 32 minutes of compelling albeit uneven tennis.

This victory raised Djokovic's record at Masters 1000 tournaments since last year's US Open to 31-1, his only loss coming against Roger Federer in a Monte Carlo semifinal. He wlll enter Saturday's encounter with Milos Raonic as a clear favorite, having swept this opponent in straight sets on clay last year.