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US Open Men's Draw Preview

Aug 30th 2015

With potential history on the horizon, a great emphasis has been given to the women’s draw at the US Open and Serena Williams. For the first time, their final sold out prior to the men’s final as many hope to witness the possible spectacle first-hand. However, ATP players may provide their own drama in a very compelling draw of their own.

Roger Federer

If the U. S. Open Series is any indication, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Novak Djokovic could certainly be considered as the front-runners to win the final major of the season. In Masters 1000 tournaments during the run up to the Open, Federer defeated both Murray and Djokovic to earn the Cincinnati title, while Murray eliminated the Serb to capture Montreal. Does this elevate Federer to favorite status?

With his tremendous results in the Western & Southern Open, Federer accomplished what could be a very beneficial advantage. He elevated to world No. 2, which places him as the No. 2 seed in New York and in the opposite side of the draw from world No. 1 Djokovic. It also ensures that he could not meet rival Rafael Nadal until the final and would only face Murray in a potential semifinal match-up. Federer appears to have figured out the Scot of late, having won their last five head-to-head meetings and six out of their last seven since 2012.

Compare this to his most recent head-to-head’s with Djokovic, and you have a slightly different pattern. Despite defeating the Serb in Cincinnati, Djokovic has won three out of their last four meetings and more importantly, the last five at Grand Slam events dating back to 2010.

At 34 years of age, Federer is playing near the top of his game and has what many would suggest as a favorable draw. Tomas Berdych, a player he has dominated, appears to be the most difficult test on his way to a meeting with Murray. However, one must only remember the 2014 U. S. Open, when seeds crumbled before Federer and it appeared the seas had parted for a run to his 18th major title. But eventual champion Marin Cilic ended any hopes of that accomplishment in the semifinals. Certainly, the marathon fortnights at the Grand Slams can become an endurance test that will once again be one of the intangibles the veteran must manage to gain ultimate success.

Andy Murray

Meanwhile, Andy Murray enters New York on an uptick as well. Rested, playing quality tennis, and with a recent Masters title earned in Canada in his pocket, Murray appears primed for a U. S. Open run. However, he did not receive any favors with his draw.

The 28-year-old could be tested straight out of the gate as he drew the dangerous Australian powder keg, Nick Kyrgios. A player who has made more news off the court than on, the youngster is still capable of defeating any player on the tour. And while he has not played his best since the infamous Stan Wawrinka incident, if Kyrgios is dialed into tennis rather than other sidebars, he could give Murray all that he could handle in the first round.

Assuming Murray survives early tests, he could face two-time major champion Stan Wawrinka in the quarterfinals. This is where things could become dicey for the world No. 3 once more. Although Murray owns an 8-6 career advantage over the Swiss No. 2, he has dropped the last two meetings with him and has not been successful since the 2012 Olympics.

Nevertheless, Murray holds a 25-4 record since Roland Garros with three of those losses coming at the hands of either Federer or Djokovic. His successful summer firmly plants him as one of the strong favorites in Flushing Meadows.

Wawrinka must be considered a contender as well. The French Open champion has been strong in 2015 as well and is quite capable of advancing to the final with a potential victory against Murray. In reality, his path to an epic quarterfinal battle should be smoother, with his toughest test appearing to be American Jack Sock.

With major titles comes confidence, and Wawrinka at his best knows he can defeat anyone during a fortnight. Now, in a more comfortable place during Grand Slams, he will play pressure-free in New York.

Novak Djokovic

Meanwhile, the world No. 1 has been somewhat overlooked, as far as buzz factor is concerned, after his results following his Wimbledon title. With no championships in either North American summer hard-court Masters event, Djokovic has not played his best in the last month. But perhaps he is a victim of his own success where the talk is concerned, since it is just assumed that he will be a factor in New York. And certainly, his two recent losses to Murray and Federer in best-of-three tournaments should not diminish his chances of capturing his 10th major title.

With a draw that looks manageable, Djokovic should breeze into the quarterfinals. There, it would appear that either Rafael Nadal or Milos Raonic would have the best opportunity to face the Serb. And with the Canadian still not at his peak following injury and Nadal struggling against better opponents of late, Djokovic will be the favorite for a deep run once again.

If not for the remarkable season of Serena Williams, Djokovic would be the talk of tennis in 2015. With a championship in New York, he would duplicate his 2011 season in which he won three of the four Grand Slam events. And despite recent losses to his rivals, he enters the U. S. Open confident. “I think physically I'm stronger and I'm able to endure longer than I did in 2011,” he said.

Elsewhere, there has seldom been as little fanfare for a defending champion than this season in New York. Despite his world No. 9 ranking, Marin Cilic has not played his best in 2015 and enters the U. S. Open having lost three of his last four matches. Regardless, it is possible that he could catch a spark with the strong incentive to defend his title in the friendly confines that just one year ago rewarded him with his first major championship. His toughest tests en route to the semifinals appear to be potential match-ups with Grigor Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori, once more.         

Kei Nishikori     

Nishikori has arrived at Flushing Meadows with unfinished business to complete. After taking out Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka, and Novak Djokovic in successive order in 2014, he had little left in the tank for Cilic in the final. He appeared primed for another deep run at the U. S. Open until recently, when the injury bug bit him once more. The health status of the No. 4 seed will be a determining factor as to his potential for success during the fortnight. If healthy, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Gael Monfils would likely be his toughest obstacles to the quarterfinals.

Finally, how do you discuss the outcome of a major tournament without including Rafael Nadal? While it does not feel as though he is playing at a level to win a title in New York, he has twice won the event, at least giving credence to a mention for contention.

However, if he is to put together a run and resemble the Rafa of old, Nadal must elevate his play from recent matches at Masters events. In Cincinnati, Nadal fell to Feliciano Lopez in the round of 16 after losing to Nishikori in the quarterfinals at Montreal. Despite recent results, it would be foolish to completely discount any chance for a possible title run for the Spaniard. And as the 2014 U. S. Open proved, anything can happen during the two-weeks in New York.

Predictions

Quarterfinals:

Novak Djokovic d. Rafael Nadal   

Kei Nishikori d. Grigor Dimitrov

Stan Wawrinka d. Andy Murray

Roger Federer d. Tomas Berdych

Semifinals:

Novak Djokovic d. Kei Nishikori

Roger Federer d. Stan Wawrinka    

Final

Roger Federer d. Novak Djokovic