In two ferociously fought sets, world No. 6 David Ferrer toppled world No. 1 Rafael Nadal at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Monte Carlo.  This rematch of last year's Roland Garros final lasted well over two hours as the two Spaniards produced strikingly simlar statistics.  Each man maintained a first-serve percentage of 61% and won roughly 60% of his first-serve points while facing 10 break points.  But Ferrer dominated the first-set tiebreak, dropping just one point, and protected his second serve more effectively than Nadal could.

This outcome was both more surprising and less surprising than the usual upset of a top-eight player over the best player in the world.  It was more surprising not only because of Nadal's dominance on clay and at this event, where he has won eight straight titles, but because of his clay dominance over Ferrer.  Nadal had not lost to his compatriot on their favorite surface since their first meeting nearly a decade ago.  He had recorded 17 straight wins over Ferrer on clay since then, most of them either routine or resounding.  Moreover, Ferrer had struggled this year in claiming just one ATP title and no wins over top-10 opponents.

But the result also was less surprising than it looked at first glance.  Despite his long clay losing streak against Nadal, Ferrer had come close to toppling his compatriot at the Madrid Masters 1000 tournament last year.  He had led by a set and a break and ultimately closed within two points of a straight-sets victory.  Ferrer also extended Nadal to a final set on the clay of Rome a week later.  He won their most recent meeting at a Masters 1000 tournament last fall, ousting Nadal in straight sets at the Paris Indoors.  The world No. 1 also had not looked quite as impressive in his first two matches at Monte Carlo as he often does in the early rounds there.  Struggles to hold serve against unseeded foes came back to haunt him when the quality of his opposition soared.

Ferrer now faces the challenge of maintaining his momentum after the euphoria of this upset.  He did not succeed in that task after defeating Nadal in Paris last fall, losing a day later to Novak Djokovic.  Awaiting the Spaniard is Australian Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka, who has impressed in straight-sets wins this week over Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic.  Still, a dirt devil like Ferrer poses a very different challenge for Wawrinka than the massive but clay-averse servers whom he has dispatched so far.

The true marquee match on Saturday will unfold in the other semifinal, where Novak Djokovic will face Roger Federer for the 34th time.  Their third Monte Carlo meeting will break a 3-3 tie on clay between the archrivals and give Djokovic the chance to draw even in his head-to-head record against Federer for the first time in his career.  The two men split their previous 2014 meetings, both won by the man who lost the first set.  

But it was far from a foregone conclusion that this matchup would take shape.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came within two points of toppling Federer in their quarterfinal.  Plagued by inconsistent groundstrokes, the Swiss star could not convert any of his 13 break points through the first two sets.  Once he escaped a tight second-set tiebreak, however, Federer seized control of the third set as Tsonga faded.

In what looked like a quarterfinal mismatch on paper, Djokovic dropped the first set to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who had won eight straight matches.  The defending champion in Monte Carlo never came as close to defeat as did Federer, taking control in the second and third sets.  Djokovic now has won 23 straight matches at the Masters 1000 level, dating back to Shanghai last fall.