Rybakina subdues Starodubtseva 7-6, 6-3 to reach US Open round of sixteen

Elena Rybakina, the world #2 from Kazakhstan, has had a topsy-turvy season. While she started strong, winning her second grand slam at the Australian Open, was a finalist at Indian Wells (l. Sabalenka) and triumphed on the dirt in Stuttgart, she struggled during the remainder of the clay and grass court seasons.

While she reached the final in Toronto (l.Swiatek), she was forced to retire with an ankle injury during her quarterfinal match against Iga Swiatek in Cincinnati. Her form and confidence heading to New York for the season’s final slam were suspect. With the number one ranking up for grabs, the twenty-seven-year-old had ample motivation.

Yulia Starodubtseva, from Ukraine, is approximating her career-high ranking of #53 at 58. She began the year outside the top 100, but with a final appearance on the Har-Tru at the Credit One Charleston Open (l.Pegula), she is gaining direct entry into slams and WTA 1000-level events.

(Manuela Davies/USTA via Getty Images)

The following month, she reached the third round at the French Open, having dispatched Rybakina in the previous round 7-6 in the third for her first top-ten win. The twenty-six-year-old clearly had belief before stepping out onto the Grandstand Court at the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center.

In a scheduled daytime match that began at 9:05 pm, Starodubtseva won the toss and chose to receive. Rybakina opened with a monster serve up the tee and held easily to 15, while Starodubtseva opened with a terrific forehand down the line, gifted a double fault, and faced two deuce points yet held to level.

Rybakina donated her first double fault but, with three consecutive aces, held easily to 15 while Starodubtseva missed four consecutive first serves, faced a deuce point yet held for 2-2.  
Rybakina struck two additional aces and held to 15 with a spectacular inside-in forehand pass. Starodubtseva missed 5/5 first serves but, with stellar defense and court coverage, held to 15 to level.

The 2022 Wimbledon champion hit three additional winners, including two aces out wide, the last at 114mph to hold for 4-3. Starodubtseva, serving with new balls, struck her first ace and held to 15 for 4-4.

Rybakina opened the ninth with an incredible inside-out forehand but dropped serve with two netted forehands and a mishit backhand. Starodubtseva faced 0-40 and deuce and gave back the break with a netted forehand and a fantastic inside-out forehand from her opponent.

Rybakina maintained her poise and patience as she struck her 8th ace to consolidate the break for 5-5. Starodubtseva, serving to stay in the set, missed 6/10 first serves, faced two deuce, and set point, yet held to force the breaker after Rybakina whiffed two consecutive forehands.

Rybakina led 3-2 following two consecutive winners, including her 9th ace, but Starodubtseva leveled at five, then held set point, which Rybakina erased with an ace out wide. The world #2 secured the breaker 8-6 with a stunning crosscourt forehand swing volley.

Starodubtseva served first in the second and dumped serve with her second double fault while Rybakina hit another monster forehand down the line and held to 15 to consolidate the break. Starodubtseva donated two consecutive errors to face double break point but benefited from three consecutive errors from her opponent to hold.

Rybakina opened the fourth with a backhand drop volley and closed with her twelfth ace. Starodubtseva gifted four additional unforced errors and dropped serve, and Rybakina returned the favor, giving back the break with four unforced errors.

Starodubtseva opened the seventh with her third double fault and, though she faced two deuce and break point, held for 3-4 when Rybakina butchered another forehand.

The reigning Australian Open champion missed 3/4 first serves yet held to love with two consecutive forehand winners. Starodubtseva serving to stay in the match, led 30-15 but faced match point and conceded it with two consecutive unforced errors.

It was a hard-hitting battle punctuated by unforced errors and shifts in momentum. Rybakina will need to minimize the errors off the forehand, particularly down the middle if she hopes to reach her maiden US Open quarterfinal.

She finished with 12 aces, 1 double fault, and won 82% of first and 50% of second serve points. She was similarly effective when returning, winning 49% of first and 40% of second serve return points. She saved 1/3 break points while converting 3/12.

Next up, the two-time US Open champion and 13th seed, Naomi Osaka. This will be their second tour-level meeting. Rybakina prevailed in a tight three-setter last month at the National Bank Open. This promises to be a high-octane slugfest.