Previewing Muguruza-Stosur, Murray-Wawrinka at Roland Garros
It has been a wet and wild Roland Garros, but through it all, four women have persevered to come within just a couple of matches of hoisting the trophy. Two of those women are GarbiƱe Muguruza and Samantha Stosur. On Friday, they will clash in a battle that pits youth against experience to determine which will have the chance to vie for this coveted title.
By virtue of her No. 4 seeding, Muguruza will be the one favored to advance. The Spaniard is ranked 20 places higher than Stosur for a reason, and that is because she has consistently been playing better tennis. She is a former Wimbledon finalist, and after reaching the quarterfinals of Stuttgart and going one better in Rome, she knows what she is capable of here in Paris. She has already broken new ground by reaching the semifinals after two consecutive quarterfinal finishes here, and she will be anxious to see if she can go a step further by reaching her second major singles final.
Of course, Stosur would dearly love to capture a second major singles title. As has been her trademark throughout her career, the Aussie's results have been streaky. She started to get it going this spring, though, winning the clay title in Prague as well as reaching the semifinals in Madrid. She has also played some excellent tennis in the French capital. She defeated Simona Halep and Lucie Safarova to get to this juncture, so she is not apt to shy away from the prospect of doing the same to Muguruza.
If Stosur is to defeat the Spaniard, however, she needs certain aspects of her game to be clicking. She wants to put in a high percentage of serves and, in particular, aim to utilize her notable kick serve to quickly get Muguruza out of position. Her forehand is also a formidable weapon, which the clay allows her more time to pounce on. She has to dictate with that wing and remember that is the groundstroke she wants to trade with Muguruza. Lastly, she has to have confidence in her backhand, whether it means hitting over it when the opportunity is there or using the slice to change up the pace. It can be a great tool to get to the net, where the Aussie knows how to finish the point as well.
As for Muguruza, the fourth seed enters this match secure in the knowledge that she possesses more firepower. Like Stosur, she needs her serve to be ready to go. As the competitor with the superior backhand, she also should look to attack that side of the Aussie and get into those types of exchanges. where she is the one less likely to blink. And finally, she has to be committed to playing her game and staying patient. Stosur is going to throw some different looks at her, especially with the backhand slice, and the Spaniard does not want to get sucked into playing on the 21st seed's terms.
Dictating one's game plan depends on thinking clearly, and managing the moment has an effect on that. Muguruza has youth on her side. She reached the final of Wimbledon last year and now in the semifinals in Paris has to feel that even if this one does not pan out, another opportunity is around the corner. As for Stosur, she knows time is closing on her career, but she has been in this situation more. She is a former US Open champion, and Roland Garros has historically been her most consistent major. She has the luxury of playing as the underdog and did win her only meeting against Muguruza on the clay in Spain in 2014, so another such victory is definitely achievable.
Is a minor upset in the cards? It is hard to say. Muguruza is playing so well now, but Stosur has a tendency to keep going once on a roll, as she appears to be now. This one could easily go either way, but let us give a nod to the veteran Stosur, who has knocked off some heavy opposition already and could have at least one more upset left in her.
The big question on the men's side this fortnight at Roland Garros has been whether or not Novak Djokovic can make history, but the marquee men's semifinal on Friday is not the one that features the top seed but instead the one that features Andy Murray against Stan Wawrinka. They are seeded second and third, respectively, and they have produced some scintillating tennis against each other in the past. Fans will be hoping for more of the same when they take to the court to decide who is moving on to the men's final on Sunday.
Casual tennis fans would be inclined to assume that Murray is the clear favorite. He is presently ranked No. 2 in the world, and although he has not achieved the same level of success as the other three, is still an established member of the Big Four. He had a great spring, as illustrated by his reaching the semifinals of Monte Carlo and the final of Madrid before earning the title in Rome. Furthermore, he has already won two majors, those coming at the US Open and Wimbledon. He is clearly capable of adding a piece of hardware from Paris to his trophy case back home.
But more regular tennis fans know that Wawrinka is just as likely to earn a berth in the final. His results have not been as consistently excellent as the Scot's throughout the course of his career, but he has become a regular at the top of the men's game over the last few years. And like the Scot, he also has two major singles crowns under his belt, the most recent coming at this event last season. His poor play over the course of the spring seemed to suggest there was little chance he would defend his title here, but he managed to win his home tournament of Geneva before coming to Paris and has not looked back since. There is no reason for him to stop now.
If the Swiss continues on his roll, he will present a tricky challenge to Murray. It is true that the Scot is the better mover and thus is better on defense. His tall, lanky stature gives him a better look at making the return, and when considering he has two hands on his backhand, a more likely shot at doing something with it as well. All of that said, Wawrinka comes to the table with the more penetrating arsenal. He goes bigger on the serve and gets more mileage on his groundstrokes. He has enough variety to match that of Murray too. His forehand is the side with which he looks to do the most damage, but he also possesses one of the best one-handed backhands in the sport, capable of producing awe-inducing winners from anywhere on the court. As evidenced by the way he routinely dismissed Roger Federer and stunned Djokovic on the way to victory here last year, he could possibly take this match right out of Murray's hands.
In addition to their strategies and execution, belief and temperament will also play key roles, and here too there is little to choose between the pair. Murray holds the edge in their rivalry 8-7, but it is the Swiss who has won their last three meetings and both meetings on clay. Murray usually plays the more consistently high brand of tennis, but it is Wawrinka who has already shown he can get the job done at this tournament, while the Scot is seeking his first final appearance in Paris. These are also two men who can go off the boil, so which one is best able to more quickly pull himself up and ride out the storms of stellar play from the other will prove a pivotal factor.
Suffice it to say, based on their seeding, rankings, and head-to-head records, this one is too tight to call. The safer bet would be on Murray, the generally steadier of the two, but the outcome rests more on the racquet of Wawrinka. If the third seed plays his best, look for him to garner the mild upset and move on for the chance to defend his title.