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Breaking Down the US Open Men's Singles Draw

Aug 28th 2016

Much like the women’s draw, the Men’s singles competition features some unknowns. Top-seed Novak Djokovic enters New York with question marks. His state of mind and game have come under the microscope after a first-round loss to Juan Martin Del Potro at the Olympics. He has since revealed a left wrist injury that kept him out of Cincinnati following his Rio exit, as well.

Meanwhile, 2nd seeded Andy Murray has logged an abundance of hours on court this summer as he took the gold in Rio following his Wimbledon crown. It appeared that the run of matches finally caught up to him in Cincinnati.

Novak Djokovic

Elsewhere, 4th seeded Rafael Nadal is still not back to peak health and there is no Roger Federer in the draw. These intangibles will likely give more hope, to players outside of the top-five, that they have a shot to win the final slam of the year.

Djokovic could face an interesting test in the opening round against Jerzy Janowicz who has recently fallen to 247 in the world after suffering a knee injury. The 25-year old has experience and was once ranked as high as world no. 14. After competing in the Olympic games, he is ready to resume play on the tour.

However, the Serb might not see his first true test until the fourth-round where either John Isner or Richard Gasquet could lie in wait.

Marin Cilic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be the favorites to earn an opportunity to face Djokovic in the quarterfinals if the world no. 1 survives. Cilic enters New York with momentum and does not lack in confidence having won the US Open title in 2014 and most recently, the Cincy Masters where he defeated Murray in the final. However, if this scenario plays out, Cilic would have to overcome a player that holds a 14-0 head-to-head career record against him in Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal is the four-seed in the next section of the draw and the Spaniard appears to have a favorable path, at least in the first week. 15-seed Roberto Bautista-Agut could be the stiffest test in the opening week for the two-time US Open champion.

If he survives the week, 5th seeded Milos Raonic and 10th seed Gael Monfils would be the favorites to face Nadal in the quarterfinals. Both have had successful summers as the Canadian was one match short of a Wimbledon title while the Frenchman won a championship in Washington, advanced to the semifinals at Rogers Cup and the quarters at Rio.

Stan Wawrinka is the three-seed in the next section of the draw that features young guns, Alexander Zverev, Nick Kyrgios, and 8th-seeded Dominic Thiem. Throw in dark horses Del Potro and Steve Johnson and you have a highly competitive portion of the draw.

Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka faces veteran Fernando Verdasco in the opening round and should have some room to breathe on his way to the fourth round afterward. There, he could potentially meet seeded players Krygios or Bernard Tomic followed by a quarterfinal match that would likely feature Del Potro, Johnson, Thiem, or veteran David Ferrer. The veteran would certainly have to earn his way to the semifinals but is more than capable of succeeding.

The last quarter of the draw features Murray, a player whom many have taken as their favorite to win the title and continue his stellar season. But former finalist and 6-seeded Kei Nishikori lies at the top half of this portion.

Like some of the other higher seeds, Murray must face a player capable of springing an upset in the opening round as he meets veteran Lukas Rosol, who has lived for these types of occasions in the past. However, the Brit will be a strong favorite to advance to the quarterfinals with veteran Gilles Simon, Fernando Lopez, or Grigor Dimitrov appearing to be his strongest opposition. Dimitrov could be tricky, having gained some confidence and recently exhibited solid play.

Andy Murray

Meanwhile, Nishikori looks to be a strong favorite until a potential match with Ivo Karlovic or 12-seeded David Goffin in the fourth round. However, it will take a strong effort to bump Nishikori and Murray off of their paths towards facing each other in a quarterfinal encounter.

If the seedings hold true to form, it would be Djokovic against Nadal and Wawrinka facing Murray in the semifinals. This would be two dream matchups for many tennis fans. Of course, Djokovic and Nadal have had a number of epic matches on the big stages while Murray and Wawrinka are both multiple major champions, as well.  Murray holds a 10-6 career edge against the Swiss while Djokovic holds a 26-23 advantage against his rival and has won 7 straight meetings and 11 out of the last 12.