The Madrid Masters is slated to start next week, and with the race to Roland Garros heating up, one of the most intriguing plot points will focus on how Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams fare in the Spanish capital.  What happens in Madrid will not ultimately determine their respective fates in Paris, but both players know that they need to come up with the goods to pull off a big week.

Williams and Djokovic will be heavy favorites in Madrid, but history has shown that they are in no way a lock to hoist the trophies.  Djokovic has only won here once, has been absent the last two years, and lost his opening match to Grigor Dimitrov in Madrid in 2013.  Williams has a little more to brag about, having twice reigned victorious, but it was at this venue last year when she fell to Petra Kvitova in the semifinals for her first official completed defeat of the season.  She also lost to the Czech a round earlier in 2014.  Suffice it to say, it has not been the most consistent of happy hunting grounds for either player.

It is imperative that Williams and Djokovic look sharp from the outset, however, since they need to have a good week to remind the rest of the field who the top dog is.  When they falter, that leaves the door open for the competition to rise to the occasion, gain confidence, and pose a greater threat down the line.  Victoria Azarenka has not yet made her first foray onto the clay this year, but throughout 2016, she has looked increasingly like the player who won two Australian Open titles and reached the pinnacle of the rankings.  After pulling off the Indian Wells and Miami double – the first of which came via a victory over Williams in the final – Azarenka is unquestionably a threat to Williams right now.  Just behind her, Angelique Kerber also mustb be considered, particularly in light of her repeat win in Stuttgart last week.  These competitors, along with a handful of other top women, have the tools to defeat Williams, and they are only going to become more likely to successfully utilize those tools if they are allowed to grow in confidence while the American struggles.

As a member of the Big Four, Novak Djokovic has arguably faced stiffer competition on a more regular basis than Williams, but he has done a remarkable job of distancing himself from the pack over the course of the last 12 months.  But despite his mounting success, even he has to be a little troubled by what transpired earlier this month.  Whether spurred on by Djokovic's early upset or simply being back in Monte Carlo, Rafael Nadal pieced together one of the finest weeks of tennis fans had seen from him in recent memory to take the crown there.  Proving it was no fluke, he backed it up in impressive fashion with a ninth title in Barcelona.  Given the Spaniard's reputation as the “King of Clay,” the last thing Djokovic wants is for Nadal to be firing on all cylinders come Paris.  The best way to rain on the Spaniard's parade would be to take the title in Madrid, and if Djokovic can do so by defeating Nadal on that journey, so much the better for him.

Of course, their performances in Madrid are not just about stifling the momentum and confidence of the competition.  They are also looking to build momentum and confidence of their own.  It sounds stunning, but four months of competition have gone by, and Williams has yet to secure a title in 2016.  She came close in Melbourne and Indian Wells, but after a listless performance against Svetlana Kuznetsova in Miami, Williams desperately needs to get her game and motivation back.  Djokovic, by contrast, is in a strong position.  He already has four titles to his name, including the Australian Open and the Indian Wells-Miami double.  But it is no secret that Roland Garros, the lone major title missing from his résumé, is the crown he covets most.  He did not want to start his march toward Paris by stumbling early in Monte Carlo, which makes it all the more essential that he get his Roland Garros campaign back on track with a good showing in Madrid to help ensure he arrives in Paris feeling as positive about the state of his game as possible.

Only time will tell how successful Williams and Djokovic will be in accomplishing their goals next week.  There are certainly legitimate threats to their success, and more than a few players will be keen to gain at their expense.  It is going to be up to them to overcome those obstacles and remind everyone, including themselves, why they are going to be the players to beat at Roland Garros.