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Can Coric Upset Nadal on Day 1 of the US Open?

Aug 30th 2015

In tennis, as with other sports, anything can happen on any given day.  A player may be in the zone, where everything his racquet touches turns to gold.  Perhaps an opponent is injured or battling health issues.  Those were just some of the factors that came into play towards the end of last year when Borna Coric made the tennis world take notice with his upset victory over Rafael Nadal in Basel.  It was the first and thus far only meeting between the duo, so the question has remained as to whether or not Coric could pull off the feat again.  That question will be answered when the pair meet in the first round of the US Open.

Rafael Nadal

In spite of what has been a lackluster season by his own lofty standards, Nadal will enter this contest as the favorite to advance.  He has 14 major singles titles to his credit, two of which came in the Big Apple.  He is still ranked within the top 10, has a vast amount of experience, and remains one of the fiercest competitors in the sport.  Even when not as his best, he can be tough to put away, but arguably more so against a relatively green talent like Coric.

Green or not, Coric is not apt to be overawed by the occasion, however.  He has been making steady progress in his young career and is presently ranked a respectable No. 35, just two spots below his career high of No. 33 last month.  He has also put together some notable results, which include reaching the third round of Roland Garros, as well as making the semifinals of Dubai, where he defeated Andy Murray on his journey to the final four of that tournament.  Unfortunately for him, he was unable to string matches together in the US Open tuneups, but after nearly upsetting Stanislas Wawrinka in Cincinnati, Coric looks like a player who is becoming increasingly comfortable with competing on the big stages against the sport's elite.

Just how comfortable Coric will feel when he takes to the court against Nadal remains to be seen.  Although admittedly not at his best, Nadal has expressed more confidence in his game than he did a few months ago.  He is looking to be more aggressive, and his lefty forehand with heavy topspin has given opponents fits for more than a decade.  Nadal needs his forehand – especially the one up the line – to be clicking.  He must also work to keep his first serve percentage up and avoid the double faults that have been plaguing him of late.  Most importantly, though, he has to remain committed to staying aggressive and close to the baseline, or Coric will not hesitate to take the initiative. 

Borna Coric

Coric is likely to have a certain comfort level in this match, since in contrast to Nadal, he is most at home on an outdoor hard court.  His favorite shot is his two-handed backhand, which should pay dividends when looking to handle Nadal's forehand, particularly if he is able to use it to redirect the ball down the line and open up the court.  Assuming he can remain patient and calm, he should be able to hold his own with the Spaniard.

Remaining patient and calm when playing a legend of the game at a major is never easy, but the good news for Coric is that Nadal may also be feeling the pressure.  As previously noted, this has been a sub-par year for the former No. 1, and he is anxious to try and get his game back on track.  He is at the most vulnerable he has been in a decade, and if ever there were a time for Coric to look to upset him at a major, it is right here and now. 

With still so many question marks surrounding the state of Nadal's game and confidence, as well as Coric's overall comparable lack of experience at this level, there is no telling how this one will evolve.  It could be a highly competitive affair or a match that fizzles.  Either way, the potential is there for this to be an enthralling match, and while the odds firmly rest with Nadal to find a way through, both men have a decent look at booking a place in the second round.