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ATP Stock Watch: Paris Edition

Oct 28th 2014

The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the year has arrived in Paris. Here is a look at the players peaking at the end of the season, and those who are more than ready for the off-season to begin.

Buy:

4) Kevin Anderson

The South African No. 1 should benefit from a favorable draw and reach the quarterfinals this week, just as he did last week in Valencia before falling to Andy Murray in three sets. He has a favorable record against the out-of-form Santiago Giraldo or Mikhail Youzhny in round 1, and he also has a favorable history against Stan Wawrinka or Dominic Thiem, who are his possible round of 16 opponents. With none of those five players in good form right now, Anderson should win a couple of matches and have a good week to end his season.

3) David Goffin

Goffin reached the final in Basel and is 14-1 since the US Open. He is on pace to have a breakthrough year at the ATP level next season after really upping his game in the second half of 2014. Assuming he is not too fatigued and beats Lukas Rosol, he will have an upset chance against David Ferrer, who has also played a lot of tennis as of late and is fighting to make the World Tour Finals. Goffin could reach the round of 16, where he should have a shot against another in-form player, Gilles Simon. Goffin’s rise has been a big surprise, but he’s proven himself to be a real ATP contender at this point, not just a fluke.

Gilles Simon

2) Gilles Simon

Simon shockingly lost in the first round of Valencia, but prior to that he reached the semifinals in Tokyo and the final in Shanghai, scoring wins over top-15 players Roberto Bautista Agut, Tomas Berdych, and Wawrinka in that span. He normally plays well on home soil, and he should reach the quarterfinals this week with wins over Fernando Verdasco and Goffin before falling to Kei Nishikori at that stage.  Simon has not had a strong season, but he’s performed better towards the end of it.

1) Kei Nishikori

Nishikori won Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo this fall after his finals appearance at the US Open, and he’s had a spectacular season. He could win his first Masters 1000 title in Paris, since he seems to be at the level of a top-three player in the world, especially after having some time off after the Asian swing. He will need to get past Tommy Robredo or Vasek Pospisil, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and possibly Simon before a likely meeting with Novak Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov, or Andy Murray in the semifinals. Nishikori has beaten Djokovic the past two times they have met, including the US Open semifinals this year and Basel indoors in 2011. If he continues that trend, he might face Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, or Raonic in the final.

Sell:

4) Joao Sousa

Sousa should lose to Gael Monfils in round 1, even though he defeated him in the Metz semifinals. The Portuguese No. 1 remains in the top 50, but he’s below .500 on the season, and he’s lost five of his last six matches since reaching the final in Metz. He appears to be slumping right now, and four of those five losses have come against lower-ranked opponents.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Tsonga is just 1-2 since the US Open, and the former Paris champion should lose to Nishikori after winning his first match. He has the Davis Cup final coming up, as does Richard Gasquet, and likewise he is slumping right now. Overall, his season has been similar to 2013, but he’s almost guaranteed to have fewer wins and more losses barring a miracle run.

2) Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka is in full-on collapse mode before the World Tour Final and the Davis Cup final between Switzerland and France. He has lost four straight matches going back to the US Open quarterfinals, and two of those losses are to journeymen Tatsuma Ito and Mikhail Kukushkin, who defeated him on home soil in Basel. His form is so poor right now that he could lose to Dominic Thiem, who is not in great form either, in his opening match. Although he won a major this year, Wawrinka has had periods this season where his game has deserted him, and he hasn’t proven himself to be a reliable top-five player.

1) Fabio Fognini

Fognini is another top player who is falling apart at the end of the season and is close to dropping out of the top 20 after having a shot at making the top 10 earlier this year. He has losses to Adrian Mannarino, Ernests Gulbis, Chinese wild card Chunan Wang, Kukushkin, and Murray going back to the US Open. Overall, he has won just two matches during and since the US Open (2-5), and although he’s a seed, he has little chance of beating Basel semifinalist Ivo Karlovic in his first match. His level of effort and recent performances have been greatly disappointing, and it’s clear he just wants the season to be over.