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Rafa Seeks Reconquest: ATP Monte Carlo Preview

Apr 13th 2014

The terre battue has arrived in earnest when the cerulean expanse of the Mediterranean Sea sprawls before the eyes of envious American onlookers.  Put more prosaically, the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Monte Carlo kicks off the marquee events on red clay as the road to Roland Garros begins. 

Rafael Nadal

First quarter:  For the first time since 2005, Rafael Nadal enters Monte Carlo with ground to gain and a message to send.  His streak of eight straight titles there ended last year at the hands of archrival Novak Djokovic.  Nadal has fought fiercely to reclaim any territory that he has surrendered on red clay throughout his career.  While he cannot face Djokovic until the final, he will should assert his dominance over the lesser half of this draw.  Most of the men near Nadal, such as Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny, lack the first-strike power to hit through him on clay.  A more intriguing matchup might unfold in a quarterfinal against Grigor Dimitrov, who extended him deep into a third set when they met in Monte Carlo last year.  (In fact, Dimitrov has won a set in all four of their meetings.)  Spanish No. 2 and sixth seed David Ferrer has not defeated Nadal on clay in a decade, dropping 17 straight meetings.

Second quarter:  While his major breakthrough came on a hard court, Australian Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka has produced much of his best tennis on clay.   Wawrinka will need to find stronger form in Monte Carlo than he did earlier this spring.  Lurking in his first match might be an upset bid from last week’s Houston champion and a former Monte Carlo finalist, Fernando Verdasco.  Also solid last week in Houston, Nicolas Almagro could meet Wawrinka in a duel of glorious one-handed backhands if the Swiss third seed survives Verdasco.  The rest of this section does not intimidate.  Like most one-dimensional servers, Milos Raonic finds clay his most frustrating surface, and Tommy Robredo has produced uneven results this spring.  Those looking for an underdog might glance at Federico Delbonis.  The unseeded Argentine already owns a clay title in 2014 and proved that he can defeat the elite on his best surface by upsetting Roger Federer in Hamburg last year.

Roger Federer

Third quarter:  As he has done before, Roger Federer took a late wildcard into Monte Carlo after initially leaving the event off his schedule.  Net-rushers and other fast-court specialists abound in Federer’s area, which should play into the hands of a man with underestimated clay skills.  Just inside the seeded cut-off, Jerzy Janowicz produced a strong run in Rome last year with two top-10 upsets.  Janowicz does not bring momentum into Monte Carlo, however, having lost five straight matches.  A miniature upset on the other side of this section might send Fabio Fognini into a quarterfinal against Federer.  Although ninth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga reached a semifinal last year at Roland Garros, where he defeated Federer, his struggles in 2014 have dropped him to just one ranking spot ahead of Fognini.  The Italian could crack the top 10 for the first time with a strong season on his best surface.

Fourth quarter:  Defending champion Novak Djokovic will seek his fifth straight Masters 1000 title after completing the Indian Wells/Miami double.  Toppled early as the top seed in Casablanca last week, Kevin Anderson should not pose too stern a test in the third round.  The recently ailing Gael Monfils has troubled Djokovic before but has tapered in form since a promising start to the season.  A change in surfaces should not unglue Alexandr Dolgopolov, who defeated two top-four opponents at the March Masters 1000 events.  But Dolgopolov never has solved Tomas Berdych, his projected third-round opponent.  The Czech has compiled one of the ATP’s more consistent records in 2014 and will look to repeat his clay upset over Djokovic in Rome last spring.  That match marked an anomaly, though, in the Serb’s overall dominance against Berdych.